Byron Donalds (R)REP82.5%
David Jolly (D)DEM17.5%
Who wins Florida governor Nov 3, 2026 — Byron Donalds (R) vs David Jolly (D).
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Polymarket · real money
Florida prediction markets
Live trader odds for Governor, Senate, House, and ballot measures. Each card is shareable — Facebook/iMessage get an odds preview. Not a scientific poll.
Data cycle: ~1 min·Updated Syncing…·Next —
Markets
29
Live
29
Combined volume
$787K
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Governor
Republican 6-9%REP23.0%
Republican 9-12%REP16.5%
Republican 3-6%REP16.0%
Republican 0-3%REP13.0%
Democrat 0-3%DEM12.0%
Republican 12-15%REP11.3%
Predicted winning margin in the Florida governor general election.
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U.S. Senate
Ashley Moody (R)REP94.5%
Angie Nixon (D)DEM6.5%
Special U.S. Senate race — Ashley Moody (R) vs Angie Nixon (D) to finish Rubio’s term.
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Republican 3-6%REP18.5%
Republican 9-12%REP15.0%
Republican 0-3%REP14.0%
Republican 6-9%REP10.5%
Republican 12-15%REP9.5%
Republican 15-18%REP8.5%
Predicted winning margin in the Florida U.S. Senate special election.
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Ballot measures
Ballot measuresLive $$1K vol
Property-tax amendmentWill FL "Save Our Homes" property-tax referendum pass?
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?30.0%
November 2026 Florida property-tax / homestead-related referendum — markets price yes/no (state amendments need 60% yes).
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Statewide
1115.5%
915.2%
715.0%
413.4%
611.5%
12+11.0%
Total U.S. House seats Democrats are priced to win in Florida in 2026.
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8.25M-8.5M44.5%
8.75M-9M39.5%
9M+36.5%
7M-7.25M36.0%
7.75M-8M34.0%
<7M32.5%
Predicted total turnout band for the Florida Senate special.
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U.S. House
Democratic PartyDEM57.0%
Republican PartyREP43.5%
Tampa Bay FL-14 — party winner market (Castor district dynamics).
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Republican PartyREP62.5%
Democratic PartyDEM36.0%
South Florida FL-22 party-control market.
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Republican PartyREP71.5%
Democratic PartyDEM30.0%
Central Florida FL-09 — Soto seat after redistricting.
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Republican PartyREP64.5%
Democratic PartyDEM33.0%
FL-07 general election — party winner market.
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Republican PartyREP83.5%
Democratic PartyDEM15.0%
Miami-area FL-27 party winner market.
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Democratic PartyDEM94.5%
Republican PartyREP4.9%
FL-20 House general election party market.
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Republican PartyREP95.5%
Democratic PartyDEM4.2%
Panhandle FL-01 — Patronis seat.
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Republican PartyREP94.0%
Democratic PartyDEM5.5%
FL-06 House general — Fine district.
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Republican PartyREP89.0%
Democratic PartyDEM9.5%
FL-12 House party winner market.
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Republican PartyREP90.0%
Democratic PartyDEM11.0%
FL-26 House party winner market.
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Republican PartyREP93.5%
Democratic PartyDEM6.5%
FL-03 House party winner market.
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Democratic PartyDEM96.7%
Republican PartyREP1.3%
FL-24 House party winner market.
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Republican PartyREP89.0%
Democratic PartyDEM9.0%
FL-04 House party winner market.
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Republican PartyREP92.5%
Democratic PartyDEM8.0%
FL-08 House party winner market.
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Republican PartyREP87.0%
Democratic PartyDEM14.0%
FL-16 House party winner market.
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Democratic PartyDEM69.5%
Republican PartyREP31.5%
FL-25 House party winner market.
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Republican PartyREP82.5%
Democratic PartyDEM15.0%
FL-11 open-seat party market.
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Republican PartyREP94.5%
Democratic PartyDEM5.5%
FL-19 (Donalds’ former seat) party market.
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Republican PartyREP92.1%
Democratic PartyDEM8.2%
FL-15 House party winner market.
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Republican PartyREP92.5%
Democratic PartyDEM7.8%
FL-21 House party winner market.
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Republican PartyREP88.0%
Democratic PartyDEM9.5%
FL-02 open seat party market.
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Republican PartyREP76.5%
Democratic PartyDEM24.0%
FL-13 House party winner market.
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Also: Governor H2H · Odds alerts · Print checklist